Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources for October 1, 2026, project a daytime high of 27°C in Chengdu under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light winds, aligning closely with observed morning temperatures near 20°C and typical early-October transition patterns from warmer late-summer conditions. Multiple model runs and agency briefings converge on this peak, with afternoon heating expected to reach but not exceed the threshold amid moderate humidity and minimal precipitation risk. Trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability reflects this data alignment and the narrow historical variability around late-September baselines. A realistic shift away from 27°C would require unforecasted cloud thickening, localized rain, or measurement differences at official stations that cap the actual maximum lower.