**Forecast models for Chengdu on October 4 point to a daytime high clustered around 24–25°C**, with trader consensus split between these outcomes due to uncertainty in peak solar heating under variable cloud cover and light precipitation. Recent runs show a moist airmass with westerly to northwesterly flow and 30–50% rain chances that could cap temperatures through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation, preventing stronger warming. This aligns with typical early-October climatology near 23°C while reflecting subtle model differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture. Newer observational data and updated numerical weather prediction runs ahead of resolution will likely tighten the range as the event nears.