Recent forecast runs from agencies including the Met Office and WeatherBug indicate a primary driver of scattered cloud cover and 60-70% rain probabilities on October 11, which should limit daytime heating in Mexico City’s high-altitude basin and cap the maximum near 21–22 °C. Model spread arises from differing representations of afternoon convection and wind patterns at 2,240 m elevation, where small changes in insolation or moisture can shift the peak by 2–4 °C. Historical October maxima average 23 °C, yet persistent early-month rainfall has kept recent observations 1–2 °C below normal. Updated model guidance and surface observations through the weekend will clarify whether stronger subsidence allows brief clearing and a higher reading near 24–25 °C.