Recent forecasts from the Qingdao Meteorological Bureau and international models indicate a high of 21–22°C on October 5 under multi-cloud to clearing skies with northwest winds of 4–7 levels, driving the market's concentration on those outcomes. Seasonal autumn cooling in the Yellow Sea region, combined with stable high-pressure influence and no incoming warm advection or frontal systems, supports this range near historical early-October averages. Traders appear to weigh model consensus heavily, with slight upside risk to 23°C if clearing occurs earlier than expected, while downside to 20°C or below remains limited absent unexpected marine layer development. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.