Recent model consensus from GFS and other global forecasts positions Warsaw's October 4 daytime maximum near 18–21°C under mostly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, favoring 20°C as the modal outcome. A mild maritime air mass following October 3's clearer, warmer conditions (near 21°C) supports modest cooling while cloud cover caps insolation and prevents stronger diurnal rises. This aligns with early-October climatology, where highs above 18°C occur regularly before seasonal decline accelerates. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of ensemble guidance around 19–20°C, with limited upside potential from any late-model warming signal or downside risk from greater low-cloud persistence. Official IMGW or airport observations will resolve the market once the calendar day ends.