Recent forecast guidance for Wellington shows a southerly airflow under building high pressure, with daytime maxima centered near 11–13 °C on 4 October. Model consensus points to clearing skies after early showers and moderate southeast winds that limit afternoon warming, keeping the highest temperature most likely in the 12–13 °C range. Minor differences in the timing of wind veering or residual cloud cover explain the narrow spread between these two outcomes. Historical October maxima average around 14–15 °C, so current cooler marine air and brisk winds account for the market’s emphasis on the lower end of the seasonal distribution. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance expected in the next 24 hours will provide the clearest signal for resolution.