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Economía·Tasas Fed

¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 5 años antes de 2027?

icon for ¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 5 años antes de 2027?
Economía·Tasas Fed

¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 5 años antes de 2027?

NUEVO
30 dic 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

5,25%

$0 Vol.

50%

5,10%

$0 Vol.

50%

5,00%

$0 Vol.

50%

4,95%

$0 Vol.

50%

4,90%

$0 Vol.

50%

4,85%

$0 Vol.

50%

4,80%

$0 Vol.

49%

4,75%

$0 Vol.

49%

4.70%

$0 Vol.

49%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish communications from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with elevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions lifting oil prices, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.53-4.55% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply from year-ago levels near 3.7%. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP, record Treasury issuance, and rising term premiums amid heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure continue to exert upward pressure on intermediate yields. Traders are pricing a meaningful chance of a September rate hike, with upcoming FOMC decisions, labor market data, and inflation releases likely to influence whether the yield tests higher levels before year-end. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus on these macroeconomic forces rather than certainties.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volumen
$0
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish communications from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with elevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions lifting oil prices, have driven the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.53-4.55% as of September 2, 2026, up sharply from year-ago levels near 3.7%. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP, record Treasury issuance, and rising term premiums amid heavy corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure continue to exert upward pressure on intermediate yields. Traders are pricing a meaningful chance of a September rate hike, with upcoming FOMC decisions, labor market data, and inflation releases likely to influence whether the yield tests higher levels before year-end. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital consensus on these macroeconomic forces rather than certainties.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volumen
$0
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 5 años antes de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "5,25%" con 50%, seguido de "5,10%" con 50%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 50¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 50% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 5 años antes de 2027?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Sep 2, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 5 años antes de 2027?", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 5 años antes de 2027?" es "5,25%" con 50%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 50% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "5,10%" con 50%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 5 años antes de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.