Trump’s second-term approval rating has declined steadily through 2026 to the low-to-mid 30s in recent national polls, with net approval reaching new lows near -27 amid the ongoing military conflict with Iran that escalated with resumed U.S. strikes in mid-July. Traders are tracking whether ratings can rebound above early-second-term peaks near 47 percent before year-end, as sustained casualties, uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, and gasoline prices near $4 per gallon weigh on public views of foreign policy and the economy. Midterm elections scheduled for November introduce additional pressure, while any diplomatic progress toward de-escalation or shifts in domestic economic indicators remain the primary variables that could alter the trajectory.