Recent April 2026 employment data showed the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, with nonfarm payrolls rising by a modest 115,000 jobs—primarily in health care and transportation—while labor force participation edged lower to 61.8 percent. This reflects a cooling labor market characterized by slower hiring momentum and rising long-term unemployment claims, consistent with forecasts projecting the rate climbing toward 4.8 percent through year-end amid AI-driven productivity shifts and restrained business expansion. Market-implied odds incorporate these trends alongside upcoming catalysts such as the June 5 jobs report, potential FOMC rate adjustments, and policy developments that could influence hiring thresholds and economic growth trajectories.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$388,693 Vol.
10 ene 2026
5,0%
28%
5.5%
14%
6.0%
13%
7.0%
10%
10,0%
5%
$388,693 Vol.
5,0%
$102,277 Vol.
28%
5.5%
$186,719 Vol.
14%
6.0%
$52,180 Vol.
13%
7.0%
$21,511 Vol.
10%
10,0%
$26,006 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent April 2026 employment data showed the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, with nonfarm payrolls rising by a modest 115,000 jobs—primarily in health care and transportation—while labor force participation edged lower to 61.8 percent. This reflects a cooling labor market characterized by slower hiring momentum and rising long-term unemployment claims, consistent with forecasts projecting the rate climbing toward 4.8 percent through year-end amid AI-driven productivity shifts and restrained business expansion. Market-implied odds incorporate these trends alongside upcoming catalysts such as the June 5 jobs report, potential FOMC rate adjustments, and policy developments that could influence hiring thresholds and economic growth trajectories.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volumen
$388,693Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent April 2026 employment data showed the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, with nonfarm payrolls rising by a modest 115,000 jobs—primarily in health care and transportation—while labor force participation edged lower to 61.8 percent. This reflects a cooling labor market characterized by slower hiring momentum and rising long-term unemployment claims, consistent with forecasts projecting the rate climbing toward 4.8 percent through year-end amid AI-driven productivity shifts and restrained business expansion. Market-implied odds incorporate these trends alongside upcoming catalysts such as the June 5 jobs report, potential FOMC rate adjustments, and policy developments that could influence hiring thresholds and economic growth trajectories.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$388,693Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent April 2026 employment data showed the U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, with nonfarm payrolls rising by a modest 115,000 jobs—primarily in health care and transportation—while labor force participation edged lower to 61.8 percent. This reflects a cooling labor market characterized by slower hiring momentum and rising long-term unemployment claims, consistent with forecasts projecting the rate climbing toward 4.8 percent through year-end amid AI-driven productivity shifts and restrained business expansion. Market-implied odds incorporate these trends alongside upcoming catalysts such as the June 5 jobs report, potential FOMC rate adjustments, and policy developments that could influence hiring thresholds and economic growth trajectories.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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