SpaceX's sustained Falcon 9 cadence, averaging over 12 launches per month through early 2026 with a dense Starlink manifest, anchors trader expectations around 140–179 total missions for the year. Operational data show reliable booster reuse cycles supporting this pace, while the imminent Starship Flight 12 debut on May 19 marks the first 2026 orbital test and introduction of Version 3 hardware aimed at validating rapid reusability. FAA approvals now permit up to 44 Starship launches annually, yet realistic projections limit Starship contributions to roughly 10–20 flights as technical milestones and range constraints unfold. Historical Falcon 9 performance and ongoing regulatory windows differentiate the closely matched 140–159 and 160–179 bands, with new model runs and manifest updates likely to refine these probabilities before year-end.