Starship's shift to its Version 3 configuration, featuring upgraded Raptor 3 engines and a new launch pad at Starbase, is the main factor anchoring trader consensus around fewer than five 2026 flights reaching space. With the first test flight of the year scheduled for May 19 and no orbital attempts completed since late 2025, the program remains in a deliberate testing phase focused on reliability and propellant transfer demonstrations rather than rapid cadence. Regulatory reviews and the inherent risks of integrating larger propellant tanks plus redesigned ignition systems continue to introduce delays, consistent with historical patterns where major vehicle iterations require multiple iterations before scaling operations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
<5 47%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.0%
$450,036 Vol.
$450,036 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
47%
5-6
26%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
4%
<5 47%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.0%
$450,036 Vol.
$450,036 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
$90,622 Vol.
47%
5-6
$108,327 Vol.
26%
7-8
$152,207 Vol.
4%
9-10
$55,882 Vol.
2%
11-12
$3,765 Vol.
2%
13-14
$4,747 Vol.
1%
15-16
$25,181 Vol.
2%
>16
$9,304 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Starship's shift to its Version 3 configuration, featuring upgraded Raptor 3 engines and a new launch pad at Starbase, is the main factor anchoring trader consensus around fewer than five 2026 flights reaching space. With the first test flight of the year scheduled for May 19 and no orbital attempts completed since late 2025, the program remains in a deliberate testing phase focused on reliability and propellant transfer demonstrations rather than rapid cadence. Regulatory reviews and the inherent risks of integrating larger propellant tanks plus redesigned ignition systems continue to introduce delays, consistent with historical patterns where major vehicle iterations require multiple iterations before scaling operations.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$450,036Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Starship's shift to its Version 3 configuration, featuring upgraded Raptor 3 engines and a new launch pad at Starbase, is the main factor anchoring trader consensus around fewer than five 2026 flights reaching space. With the first test flight of the year scheduled for May 19 and no orbital attempts completed since late 2025, the program remains in a deliberate testing phase focused on reliability and propellant transfer demonstrations rather than rapid cadence. Regulatory reviews and the inherent risks of integrating larger propellant tanks plus redesigned ignition systems continue to introduce delays, consistent with historical patterns where major vehicle iterations require multiple iterations before scaling operations.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$450,036Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Starship's shift to its Version 3 configuration, featuring upgraded Raptor 3 engines and a new launch pad at Starbase, is the main factor anchoring trader consensus around fewer than five 2026 flights reaching space. With the first test flight of the year scheduled for May 19 and no orbital attempts completed since late 2025, the program remains in a deliberate testing phase focused on reliability and propellant transfer demonstrations rather than rapid cadence. Regulatory reviews and the inherent risks of integrating larger propellant tanks plus redesigned ignition systems continue to introduce delays, consistent with historical patterns where major vehicle iterations require multiple iterations before scaling operations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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