Democrat Christina Bohannan defeated Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks by roughly 9.2 points in Iowa’s 1st district on November 3, 2026, with Bohannan at 52.8% and Miller-Meeks at 43.6% alongside a minor independent share. This outcome aligns with the market’s leading 9-12% Democrat margin bucket, which reflects the final vote distribution across southeastern Iowa counties. Bohannan’s third challenge capitalized on narrower 2024 margins and a broader Democratic shift in the state, including gains in the governorship and additional House seats. Traders’ consensus on the narrowest competitive ranges (3-9%) and wider spreads accounts for remaining uncertified ballots and any minor adjustments, while Republican-positive outcomes remain low-probability given the certified tallies.