US intelligence assessments released early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains 9-12 months for a functional weapon, unchanged despite US-Israeli airstrikes in February that targeted facilities like Natanz and Bushehr but left its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium largely intact and unaccounted for underground. IAEA reports from February-April note Tehran's restricted access to inspectors and no restart of higher enrichment, while Iran's envoy affirmed no pursuit of weapons-grade levels. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus at 91% "No" reflects deterrence from ongoing US naval pressures and diplomatic stalemates, though sudden weaponization decisions or undetected advances could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$602,008 Vol.
$602,008 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$602,008 Vol.
$602,008 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US intelligence assessments released early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains 9-12 months for a functional weapon, unchanged despite US-Israeli airstrikes in February that targeted facilities like Natanz and Bushehr but left its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium largely intact and unaccounted for underground. IAEA reports from February-April note Tehran's restricted access to inspectors and no restart of higher enrichment, while Iran's envoy affirmed no pursuit of weapons-grade levels. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus at 91% "No" reflects deterrence from ongoing US naval pressures and diplomatic stalemates, though sudden weaponization decisions or undetected advances could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
Volumen
$602,008Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US intelligence assessments released early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains 9-12 months for a functional weapon, unchanged despite US-Israeli airstrikes in February that targeted facilities like Natanz and Bushehr but left its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium largely intact and unaccounted for underground. IAEA reports from February-April note Tehran's restricted access to inspectors and no restart of higher enrichment, while Iran's envoy affirmed no pursuit of weapons-grade levels. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus at 91% "No" reflects deterrence from ongoing US naval pressures and diplomatic stalemates, though sudden weaponization decisions or undetected advances could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$602,008Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments released early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains 9-12 months for a functional weapon, unchanged despite US-Israeli airstrikes in February that targeted facilities like Natanz and Bushehr but left its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium largely intact and unaccounted for underground. IAEA reports from February-April note Tehran's restricted access to inspectors and no restart of higher enrichment, while Iran's envoy affirmed no pursuit of weapons-grade levels. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus at 91% "No" reflects deterrence from ongoing US naval pressures and diplomatic stalemates, though sudden weaponization decisions or undetected advances could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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