Opposition parties KMT and TPP, controlling 60 seats in Taiwan's 113-seat Legislative Yuan, lack the 76-vote supermajority required to advance an impeachment motion against President Lai Ching-te, driving trader consensus to 98% "No" by June 30. The dispute stems from Lai's refusal to countersign a 2025 fiscal revenue allocation bill, sparking hearings since December that escalated into a second session on May 14 without his attendance. A roll-call vote is set for May 19, but DPP's 51 seats and no reported defections make passage improbable, with any referral to the Constitutional Court unlikely to resolve before the deadline. Only extraordinary cross-party shifts or procedural surprises could alter odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Lai Ching-te destituido antes del 30 de junio?
¿Lai Ching-te destituido antes del 30 de junio?
Sí
$618,571 Vol.
$618,571 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$618,571 Vol.
$618,571 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Opposition parties KMT and TPP, controlling 60 seats in Taiwan's 113-seat Legislative Yuan, lack the 76-vote supermajority required to advance an impeachment motion against President Lai Ching-te, driving trader consensus to 98% "No" by June 30. The dispute stems from Lai's refusal to countersign a 2025 fiscal revenue allocation bill, sparking hearings since December that escalated into a second session on May 14 without his attendance. A roll-call vote is set for May 19, but DPP's 51 seats and no reported defections make passage improbable, with any referral to the Constitutional Court unlikely to resolve before the deadline. Only extraordinary cross-party shifts or procedural surprises could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volumen
$618,571Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Opposition parties KMT and TPP, controlling 60 seats in Taiwan's 113-seat Legislative Yuan, lack the 76-vote supermajority required to advance an impeachment motion against President Lai Ching-te, driving trader consensus to 98% "No" by June 30. The dispute stems from Lai's refusal to countersign a 2025 fiscal revenue allocation bill, sparking hearings since December that escalated into a second session on May 14 without his attendance. A roll-call vote is set for May 19, but DPP's 51 seats and no reported defections make passage improbable, with any referral to the Constitutional Court unlikely to resolve before the deadline. Only extraordinary cross-party shifts or procedural surprises could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volumen
$618,571Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Opposition parties KMT and TPP, controlling 60 seats in Taiwan's 113-seat Legislative Yuan, lack the 76-vote supermajority required to advance an impeachment motion against President Lai Ching-te, driving trader consensus to 98% "No" by June 30. The dispute stems from Lai's refusal to countersign a 2025 fiscal revenue allocation bill, sparking hearings since December that escalated into a second session on May 14 without his attendance. A roll-call vote is set for May 19, but DPP's 51 seats and no reported defections make passage improbable, with any referral to the Constitutional Court unlikely to resolve before the deadline. Only extraordinary cross-party shifts or procedural surprises could alter odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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