**South Korean President Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity that suspends most criminal proceedings during his term, except for insurrection or treason.** All five pre-existing trials on election-law violations, corruption, and related charges tied to his earlier roles as Seongnam mayor and Gyeonggi governor were indefinitely postponed after his June 2025 election victory. As of mid-2026, no new indictments have been filed and no legislative steps have advanced to lift these protections. His Democratic Party holds a legislative supermajority, local election gains, and approval ratings near 60 percent, limiting political pressure for impeachment or removal that would be required before any arrest could occur by December 31, 2026. Traders therefore assign only a 7.4 percent chance of arrest before 2027, reflecting the institutional barriers and absence of recent prosecutorial or parliamentary action against the incumbent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Lee Jae-myung arrestado antes de 2027?
¿Lee Jae-myung arrestado antes de 2027?
Sí
7% probabilidad
$529,276 Vol.
$529,276 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
7% probabilidad
$529,276 Vol.
$529,276 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**South Korean President Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity that suspends most criminal proceedings during his term, except for insurrection or treason.**
All five pre-existing trials on election-law violations, corruption, and related charges tied to his earlier roles as Seongnam mayor and Gyeonggi governor were indefinitely postponed after his June 2025 election victory. As of mid-2026, no new indictments have been filed and no legislative steps have advanced to lift these protections. His Democratic Party holds a legislative supermajority, local election gains, and approval ratings near 60 percent, limiting political pressure for impeachment or removal that would be required before any arrest could occur by December 31, 2026. Traders therefore assign only a 7.4 percent chance of arrest before 2027, reflecting the institutional barriers and absence of recent prosecutorial or parliamentary action against the incumbent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Volumen
$529,276Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**South Korean President Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity that suspends most criminal proceedings during his term, except for insurrection or treason.**
All five pre-existing trials on election-law violations, corruption, and related charges tied to his earlier roles as Seongnam mayor and Gyeonggi governor were indefinitely postponed after his June 2025 election victory. As of mid-2026, no new indictments have been filed and no legislative steps have advanced to lift these protections. His Democratic Party holds a legislative supermajority, local election gains, and approval ratings near 60 percent, limiting political pressure for impeachment or removal that would be required before any arrest could occur by December 31, 2026. Traders therefore assign only a 7.4 percent chance of arrest before 2027, reflecting the institutional barriers and absence of recent prosecutorial or parliamentary action against the incumbent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$529,276Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**South Korean President Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity that suspends most criminal proceedings during his term, except for insurrection or treason.** All five pre-existing trials on election-law violations, corruption, and related charges tied to his earlier roles as Seongnam mayor and Gyeonggi governor were indefinitely postponed after his June 2025 election victory. As of mid-2026, no new indictments have been filed and no legislative steps have advanced to lift these protections. His Democratic Party holds a legislative supermajority, local election gains, and approval ratings near 60 percent, limiting political pressure for impeachment or removal that would be required before any arrest could occur by December 31, 2026. Traders therefore assign only a 7.4 percent chance of arrest before 2027, reflecting the institutional barriers and absence of recent prosecutorial or parliamentary action against the incumbent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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