South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, in office since mid-2025, benefits from constitutional protections that shield sitting presidents from criminal prosecution and arrest during their term, which extends well beyond 2027. Appeals courts have overturned prior election-law convictions from his time as opposition leader, while remaining cases face extended timelines with no active warrants or imminent resolutions reported. Recent political stability, including strong local election results for his party and sustained approval ratings near 60 percent through mid-2026, further reduces near-term legal risks. Traders price the "No" outcome at 92.7 percent because structural immunity and procedural delays make an arrest before the 2027 horizon highly improbable absent extraordinary developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Lee Jae-myung arrestado antes de 2027?
¿Lee Jae-myung arrestado antes de 2027?
Sí
7% probabilidad
$529,411 Vol.
$529,411 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
7% probabilidad
$529,411 Vol.
$529,411 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, in office since mid-2025, benefits from constitutional protections that shield sitting presidents from criminal prosecution and arrest during their term, which extends well beyond 2027. Appeals courts have overturned prior election-law convictions from his time as opposition leader, while remaining cases face extended timelines with no active warrants or imminent resolutions reported. Recent political stability, including strong local election results for his party and sustained approval ratings near 60 percent through mid-2026, further reduces near-term legal risks. Traders price the "No" outcome at 92.7 percent because structural immunity and procedural delays make an arrest before the 2027 horizon highly improbable absent extraordinary developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Volumen
$529,411Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, in office since mid-2025, benefits from constitutional protections that shield sitting presidents from criminal prosecution and arrest during their term, which extends well beyond 2027. Appeals courts have overturned prior election-law convictions from his time as opposition leader, while remaining cases face extended timelines with no active warrants or imminent resolutions reported. Recent political stability, including strong local election results for his party and sustained approval ratings near 60 percent through mid-2026, further reduces near-term legal risks. Traders price the "No" outcome at 92.7 percent because structural immunity and procedural delays make an arrest before the 2027 horizon highly improbable absent extraordinary developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$529,411Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, in office since mid-2025, benefits from constitutional protections that shield sitting presidents from criminal prosecution and arrest during their term, which extends well beyond 2027. Appeals courts have overturned prior election-law convictions from his time as opposition leader, while remaining cases face extended timelines with no active warrants or imminent resolutions reported. Recent political stability, including strong local election results for his party and sustained approval ratings near 60 percent through mid-2026, further reduces near-term legal risks. Traders price the "No" outcome at 92.7 percent because structural immunity and procedural delays make an arrest before the 2027 horizon highly improbable absent extraordinary developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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