Recent forecasts from multiple models, including those aligned with China Meteorological Administration guidance, indicate Chongqing overnight lows near 19–21°C on October 2 under persistent overcast conditions and light rain, with high humidity near 90% and light variable winds suppressing strong radiative cooling. This setup creates tight clustering around mid-range outcomes while sustaining near-even market-implied odds between cooler (15°C or below at 48.5%) and warmer (25°C or higher at 47.0%) extremes, reflecting uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any brief clear spells that could alter minimums by 2–3°C. Historical October baselines average 16–17°C lows, but current moisture and steering patterns favor milder values, with fresh model runs expected to refine resolution thresholds ahead of market close.