**Trader consensus has converged on a 26°C minimum for Hong Kong on October 13, 2026, with near-certainty implied by the 100% market price.** This positioning reflects consistent preliminary observations and forecast verification from multiple sources showing overnight lows stabilizing near 25–26°C under clear to partly cloudy conditions after daytime highs of 30–31°C. October climatology for the region typically features daily minima around 23.9°C, but recent dry, stable atmospheric patterns with light easterly flow suppressed further cooling, aligning reported values tightly with 26°C. The Hong Kong Observatory’s standard minimum-temperature measurement at its primary station provides the likely resolution benchmark, and available extracts and historical logs for the date cluster around this figure rather than the lower 24°C or higher 28°C thresholds. Realistic challenges remain limited but include final data revisions from the Observatory, differences between stations or averaging methods, or any post-event quality-control adjustments that could shift the recorded absolute daily minimum outside the narrow 26°C band. New official releases in the coming days would be the key trigger for any market movement.