Current numerical weather models, including outputs from GFS and regional runs, project minimum temperatures of 13–16°C in Mexico City on October 12 amid widespread cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and scattered showers tied to the late wet season. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling over the high-elevation basin, aligning with climatological norms where mid-October lows average near 11–13°C. Trader consensus reflected in the 49% implied probability for 8°C or below appears driven by model uncertainty ranges and recent cool anomalies rather than consensus guidance, while warmer bins capture lower odds consistent with stable steering patterns and no incoming cold fronts. Updated SMN and ECMWF runs ahead of resolution will clarify any shifts from observed trends.