Recent model runs show Toronto's overnight low on October 10 hovering near 10–13 °C under building high pressure and light easterly flow, yet ensemble spread keeps the market balanced near 49 % for both sub-5 °C and 14 °C-plus outcomes. Radiative cooling under clear skies could drive the minimum lower if winds remain calm after midnight, while any increase in cloud cover or a modest warm-air advection would limit the drop to the mid-teens. Historical climatology places the Oct 10 average low near 9 °C, so current guidance sits close to that baseline but with enough uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and timing of the high’s center to sustain the bimodal trader positioning ahead of the next model cycle.