No new pandemic has emerged in 2026, supporting the 94% market-implied probability for that outcome, as WHO and CDC surveillance shows only regional outbreaks without sustained global human-to-human transmission. The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the DRC and Uganda remains a PHEIC with very high local risk but low global threat per official assessments, while COVID-19 circulates at moderate levels with declining hospitalizations and no dominant immune-escape variant. Avian influenza and other zoonotic cases stay limited, and prior hantavirus events have resolved without escalation. Traders weigh this against historical patterns of rapid spread in true pandemics. A novel spillover or reassortant virus achieving efficient transmission could still shift odds before year-end.