Final pre-election polls from Siena, Marist, and Quinnipiac placed Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul ahead of Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman by 11–14 points among likely voters, establishing the baseline for trader expectations around a 10–15 point Democratic margin of victory. The November 3 election has concluded, with early projections confirming Hochul’s reelection, and ongoing vote tabulation in key regions will determine the precise spread. Historical turnout patterns in Democratic strongholds and suburban counties, combined with the absence of major late-breaking shifts, support the current distribution across margin buckets. Any divergence in final certified results from polling averages could still adjust probabilities in narrower ranges.