Anthropic’s rapid iteration on its Claude Opus series drives current market focus, with Opus 5 launching July 24, 2026, and quickly topping multiple Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards at scores around 55–65% depending on the evaluation setup. Each recent Opus update—4.6 in February, 4.8 in May, and 5 in July—has delivered state-of-the-art results on this expert-vetted benchmark spanning math, sciences, and humanities, often outperforming GPT-5 variants and Gemini models through enhanced reasoning, tool use, and adaptive compute. Traders watch for the next Opus release cadence, benchmark saturation signals, and any competitive shifts from OpenAI or Google that could alter which model first claims the leading HLE position upon debut.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoEl próximo modelo de Claude Opus: ¿el último debut de la humanidad en el examen?
El próximo modelo de Claude Opus: ¿el último debut de la humanidad en el examen?
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
45%+
94%
50%+
94%
55%+
48%
60% o más
29%
$743 Vol.
45%+
$142 Vol.
94%
50%+
$370 Vol.
94%
55%+
$100 Vol.
48%
60% o más
$131 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s rapid iteration on its Claude Opus series drives current market focus, with Opus 5 launching July 24, 2026, and quickly topping multiple Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards at scores around 55–65% depending on the evaluation setup. Each recent Opus update—4.6 in February, 4.8 in May, and 5 in July—has delivered state-of-the-art results on this expert-vetted benchmark spanning math, sciences, and humanities, often outperforming GPT-5 variants and Gemini models through enhanced reasoning, tool use, and adaptive compute. Traders watch for the next Opus release cadence, benchmark saturation signals, and any competitive shifts from OpenAI or Google that could alter which model first claims the leading HLE position upon debut.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volumen
$743Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s rapid iteration on its Claude Opus series drives current market focus, with Opus 5 launching July 24, 2026, and quickly topping multiple Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards at scores around 55–65% depending on the evaluation setup. Each recent Opus update—4.6 in February, 4.8 in May, and 5 in July—has delivered state-of-the-art results on this expert-vetted benchmark spanning math, sciences, and humanities, often outperforming GPT-5 variants and Gemini models through enhanced reasoning, tool use, and adaptive compute. Traders watch for the next Opus release cadence, benchmark saturation signals, and any competitive shifts from OpenAI or Google that could alter which model first claims the leading HLE position upon debut.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$743Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s rapid iteration on its Claude Opus series drives current market focus, with Opus 5 launching July 24, 2026, and quickly topping multiple Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards at scores around 55–65% depending on the evaluation setup. Each recent Opus update—4.6 in February, 4.8 in May, and 5 in July—has delivered state-of-the-art results on this expert-vetted benchmark spanning math, sciences, and humanities, often outperforming GPT-5 variants and Gemini models through enhanced reasoning, tool use, and adaptive compute. Traders watch for the next Opus release cadence, benchmark saturation signals, and any competitive shifts from OpenAI or Google that could alter which model first claims the leading HLE position upon debut.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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