The district's D+5 partisan voter index and recent voting patterns have anchored Democratic advantages in NJ-11, a shift that solidified after the seat flipped in 2018 and held through subsequent cycles. Analilia Mejia's decisive special-election victory on April 16, 2026, with roughly 60 percent of the vote, further strengthened her position as incumbent heading into the June primary and November general, limiting Republican opportunities in a suburban district that has trended away from GOP candidates. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a commanding lead because historical base rates for incumbent re-election in similar districts remain high absent major national shifts. A sustained Republican surge in midterm turnout or an unexpectedly competitive primary challenge could narrow the margin, though neither scenario currently registers as probable in available polling or fundraising data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de NJ-11
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de NJ-11
$14,255 Vol.
$14,255 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
93%
Partido Republicano
9%
$14,255 Vol.
$14,255 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$12,046 Vol.
93%
Partido Republicano
$2,209 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's D+5 partisan voter index and recent voting patterns have anchored Democratic advantages in NJ-11, a shift that solidified after the seat flipped in 2018 and held through subsequent cycles. Analilia Mejia's decisive special-election victory on April 16, 2026, with roughly 60 percent of the vote, further strengthened her position as incumbent heading into the June primary and November general, limiting Republican opportunities in a suburban district that has trended away from GOP candidates. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a commanding lead because historical base rates for incumbent re-election in similar districts remain high absent major national shifts. A sustained Republican surge in midterm turnout or an unexpectedly competitive primary challenge could narrow the margin, though neither scenario currently registers as probable in available polling or fundraising data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volumen
$14,255Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's D+5 partisan voter index and recent voting patterns have anchored Democratic advantages in NJ-11, a shift that solidified after the seat flipped in 2018 and held through subsequent cycles. Analilia Mejia's decisive special-election victory on April 16, 2026, with roughly 60 percent of the vote, further strengthened her position as incumbent heading into the June primary and November general, limiting Republican opportunities in a suburban district that has trended away from GOP candidates. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a commanding lead because historical base rates for incumbent re-election in similar districts remain high absent major national shifts. A sustained Republican surge in midterm turnout or an unexpectedly competitive primary challenge could narrow the margin, though neither scenario currently registers as probable in available polling or fundraising data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$14,255Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's D+5 partisan voter index and recent voting patterns have anchored Democratic advantages in NJ-11, a shift that solidified after the seat flipped in 2018 and held through subsequent cycles. Analilia Mejia's decisive special-election victory on April 16, 2026, with roughly 60 percent of the vote, further strengthened her position as incumbent heading into the June primary and November general, limiting Republican opportunities in a suburban district that has trended away from GOP candidates. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a commanding lead because historical base rates for incumbent re-election in similar districts remain high absent major national shifts. A sustained Republican surge in midterm turnout or an unexpectedly competitive primary challenge could narrow the margin, though neither scenario currently registers as probable in available polling or fundraising data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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