North Korea's missile testing patterns show a typical pause following the surge of activity in late April 2026, including multiple short-range ballistic missile launches with cluster munitions from the Sinpo area on April 19 that brought the year's total to at least seven tests. Traders price fewer than two test days in May 2026 at 69 percent, reflecting the absence of reported launches in the first half of the month amid ongoing South Korea-U.S. military exercises and regional tensions. The 26 percent on two-to-three days anticipates potential responses to diplomatic posturing or sanctions pressures by Pyongyang, while the low 4.1 percent on four or more highlights structural barriers to rapid escalation without new triggers such as joint drills or policy shifts. Historical monthly variability in North Korea's program continues to shape this skin-in-the-game consensus through May 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNumber of North Korea Missile Tests in May 2026?
Number of North Korea Missile Tests in May 2026?
<2 69%
2-3 26%
4+ 4.2%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
<2
69%
2-3
26%
4+
4%
<2 69%
2-3 26%
4+ 4.2%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 may 2026
<2
$1,347 Vol.
69%
2-3
$3,160 Vol.
26%
4+
$516 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's missile testing patterns show a typical pause following the surge of activity in late April 2026, including multiple short-range ballistic missile launches with cluster munitions from the Sinpo area on April 19 that brought the year's total to at least seven tests. Traders price fewer than two test days in May 2026 at 69 percent, reflecting the absence of reported launches in the first half of the month amid ongoing South Korea-U.S. military exercises and regional tensions. The 26 percent on two-to-three days anticipates potential responses to diplomatic posturing or sanctions pressures by Pyongyang, while the low 4.1 percent on four or more highlights structural barriers to rapid escalation without new triggers such as joint drills or policy shifts. Historical monthly variability in North Korea's program continues to shape this skin-in-the-game consensus through May 31.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volumen
$5,023Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's missile testing patterns show a typical pause following the surge of activity in late April 2026, including multiple short-range ballistic missile launches with cluster munitions from the Sinpo area on April 19 that brought the year's total to at least seven tests. Traders price fewer than two test days in May 2026 at 69 percent, reflecting the absence of reported launches in the first half of the month amid ongoing South Korea-U.S. military exercises and regional tensions. The 26 percent on two-to-three days anticipates potential responses to diplomatic posturing or sanctions pressures by Pyongyang, while the low 4.1 percent on four or more highlights structural barriers to rapid escalation without new triggers such as joint drills or policy shifts. Historical monthly variability in North Korea's program continues to shape this skin-in-the-game consensus through May 31.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volumen
$5,023Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...North Korea's missile testing patterns show a typical pause following the surge of activity in late April 2026, including multiple short-range ballistic missile launches with cluster munitions from the Sinpo area on April 19 that brought the year's total to at least seven tests. Traders price fewer than two test days in May 2026 at 69 percent, reflecting the absence of reported launches in the first half of the month amid ongoing South Korea-U.S. military exercises and regional tensions. The 26 percent on two-to-three days anticipates potential responses to diplomatic posturing or sanctions pressures by Pyongyang, while the low 4.1 percent on four or more highlights structural barriers to rapid escalation without new triggers such as joint drills or policy shifts. Historical monthly variability in North Korea's program continues to shape this skin-in-the-game consensus through May 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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