Laura Gillen, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding position in New York’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the 86.5% market probability for the Democratic Party. The district carries a D+2 Partisan Voter Index, and Gillen flipped the Long Island seat in 2024 before securing her renomination without opposition when the Democratic primary was canceled. Jeanine Driscoll emerged from the Republican primary as the nominee, but the race ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify it as Lean or Tilt Democratic. Gillen’s fundraising advantage exceeds $5 million, while the modest Republican share aligns with the seat’s historical competitiveness and the absence of recent developments that would shift the balance before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de NY-04
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de NY-04
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
87%
Partido Republicano
15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$1,549 Vol.
87%
Partido Republicano
$402 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Laura Gillen, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding position in New York’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the 86.5% market probability for the Democratic Party. The district carries a D+2 Partisan Voter Index, and Gillen flipped the Long Island seat in 2024 before securing her renomination without opposition when the Democratic primary was canceled. Jeanine Driscoll emerged from the Republican primary as the nominee, but the race ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify it as Lean or Tilt Democratic. Gillen’s fundraising advantage exceeds $5 million, while the modest Republican share aligns with the seat’s historical competitiveness and the absence of recent developments that would shift the balance before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volumen
$1,950Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Laura Gillen, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding position in New York’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the 86.5% market probability for the Democratic Party. The district carries a D+2 Partisan Voter Index, and Gillen flipped the Long Island seat in 2024 before securing her renomination without opposition when the Democratic primary was canceled. Jeanine Driscoll emerged from the Republican primary as the nominee, but the race ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify it as Lean or Tilt Democratic. Gillen’s fundraising advantage exceeds $5 million, while the modest Republican share aligns with the seat’s historical competitiveness and the absence of recent developments that would shift the balance before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$1,950Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Laura Gillen, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding position in New York’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the 86.5% market probability for the Democratic Party. The district carries a D+2 Partisan Voter Index, and Gillen flipped the Long Island seat in 2024 before securing her renomination without opposition when the Democratic primary was canceled. Jeanine Driscoll emerged from the Republican primary as the nominee, but the race ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify it as Lean or Tilt Democratic. Gillen’s fundraising advantage exceeds $5 million, while the modest Republican share aligns with the seat’s historical competitiveness and the absence of recent developments that would shift the balance before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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