The OH-02 House race shows traders assigning the highest probability to a Republican margin of victory between 20 and 35 percent, reflecting a closely contested contest between the two leading candidates. Recent polling trends and early voting returns in this Republican-leaning district indicate steady turnout among core bases with limited movement in suburban areas, keeping the outcome within a narrow band. National midterm dynamics, district-specific voter registration patterns, and the absence of major last-minute developments such as high-profile endorsements or legal challenges have sustained the tight positioning. Vote tabulation timelines and any potential recounts remain the primary near-term factors that could shift probabilities if final margins deviate from current expectations.