Despite the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC effective May 1, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability against full dissolution in 2026, reflecting the organization's resilience demonstrated by the May 3 OPEC+ ministerial meeting where Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others agreed to modest June production quota hikes amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Saudi-led cohesion among the remaining 11 core members sustains coordinated supply management, as evidenced by OPEC's May Monthly Oil Market Report lowering 2026 global demand growth to 1.17 million bpd while maintaining output discipline to support Brent crude above $100/bbl. Realistic challenges include further member defections over quota disputes or prolonged Iran conflict eroding unity, though historical precedents like Angola's 2024 departure affirm endurance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$16,734 Vol.
$16,734 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$16,734 Vol.
$16,734 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Despite the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC effective May 1, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability against full dissolution in 2026, reflecting the organization's resilience demonstrated by the May 3 OPEC+ ministerial meeting where Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others agreed to modest June production quota hikes amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Saudi-led cohesion among the remaining 11 core members sustains coordinated supply management, as evidenced by OPEC's May Monthly Oil Market Report lowering 2026 global demand growth to 1.17 million bpd while maintaining output discipline to support Brent crude above $100/bbl. Realistic challenges include further member defections over quota disputes or prolonged Iran conflict eroding unity, though historical precedents like Angola's 2024 departure affirm endurance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volumen
$16,734Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Despite the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC effective May 1, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability against full dissolution in 2026, reflecting the organization's resilience demonstrated by the May 3 OPEC+ ministerial meeting where Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others agreed to modest June production quota hikes amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Saudi-led cohesion among the remaining 11 core members sustains coordinated supply management, as evidenced by OPEC's May Monthly Oil Market Report lowering 2026 global demand growth to 1.17 million bpd while maintaining output discipline to support Brent crude above $100/bbl. Realistic challenges include further member defections over quota disputes or prolonged Iran conflict eroding unity, though historical precedents like Angola's 2024 departure affirm endurance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$16,734Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC effective May 1, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability against full dissolution in 2026, reflecting the organization's resilience demonstrated by the May 3 OPEC+ ministerial meeting where Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others agreed to modest June production quota hikes amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Saudi-led cohesion among the remaining 11 core members sustains coordinated supply management, as evidenced by OPEC's May Monthly Oil Market Report lowering 2026 global demand growth to 1.17 million bpd while maintaining output discipline to support Brent crude above $100/bbl. Realistic challenges include further member defections over quota disputes or prolonged Iran conflict eroding unity, though historical precedents like Angola's 2024 departure affirm endurance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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