OpenAI's measured public roadmap and Sam Altman's recent statements continue to anchor trader sentiment around the 86% probability that the company will not formally announce AGI achievement before 2027. In late 2025 the firm outlined plans for an “AI research intern” level system by September 2026 and fully autonomous researchers only by March 2028, framing these as incremental steps rather than a completed AGI milestone. Altman has repeatedly walked back earlier claims of having “basically built AGI,” describing them as spiritual rather than literal, and has shifted focus toward superintelligence timelines that extend into 2028. No new model releases or internal disclosures since early 2026 have crossed the threshold for an official announcement, leaving market-implied odds aligned with the company’s own cautious, milestone-driven approach.