Traders assign a 94% implied probability that OpenAI will not announce AGI before 2027 because no large language model release or capability demonstration has met credible AGI thresholds such as broad autonomous task performance across domains. Recent model updates have shown incremental gains in reasoning and multimodal processing, yet they remain specialized tools rather than general systems, with leadership statements emphasizing continued scaling needs and safety reviews. Competitive pressure from other labs and regulatory scrutiny on advanced AI further temper expectations for a sudden 2026 declaration. A realistic challenge could arise from an unexpected internal breakthrough or redefined AGI criteria announced before year-end, though historical timelines for frontier model progress make this unlikely.