Claude Opus 5’s late-July 2026 release has driven the dominant 88% market-implied probability for its max-effort variant, as the model quickly captured top spots on Artificial Analysis Intelligence and Agentic indexes plus multiple Arena coding boards while delivering near-Fable 5 performance at half the price. Traders view the combination of 1M-token context, default thinking mode, and efficiency gains as decisive for any “best model” resolution on August 24. Qwen3.8-Max’s early-August launch and strong benchmark claims have secured a modest 9.5% share but trail on independent leaderboards, while lower-probability Claude Opus 5 variants reflect uncertainty over exact effort settings or evaluation criteria. No major releases or benchmark shifts have occurred in the past week to alter the current consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizadoclaude-opus-5-max 90%
claude-opus-5-high 5.9%
Otro 4.4%
qwen3.8-max 2.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 ago 2026
claude-opus-5-max
90%
claude-opus-5-high
6%
Otro
4%
qwen3.8-max
2%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
1%
claude-opus-5-max 90%
claude-opus-5-high 5.9%
Otro 4.4%
qwen3.8-max 2.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 ago 2026
claude-opus-5-max
$1,801 Vol.
90%
claude-opus-5-high
$149 Vol.
6%
Otro
$458 Vol.
4%
qwen3.8-max
$93 Vol.
2%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$145 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5’s late-July 2026 release has driven the dominant 88% market-implied probability for its max-effort variant, as the model quickly captured top spots on Artificial Analysis Intelligence and Agentic indexes plus multiple Arena coding boards while delivering near-Fable 5 performance at half the price. Traders view the combination of 1M-token context, default thinking mode, and efficiency gains as decisive for any “best model” resolution on August 24. Qwen3.8-Max’s early-August launch and strong benchmark claims have secured a modest 9.5% share but trail on independent leaderboards, while lower-probability Claude Opus 5 variants reflect uncertainty over exact effort settings or evaluation criteria. No major releases or benchmark shifts have occurred in the past week to alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volumen
$2,617Fecha de finalización
24 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5’s late-July 2026 release has driven the dominant 88% market-implied probability for its max-effort variant, as the model quickly captured top spots on Artificial Analysis Intelligence and Agentic indexes plus multiple Arena coding boards while delivering near-Fable 5 performance at half the price. Traders view the combination of 1M-token context, default thinking mode, and efficiency gains as decisive for any “best model” resolution on August 24. Qwen3.8-Max’s early-August launch and strong benchmark claims have secured a modest 9.5% share but trail on independent leaderboards, while lower-probability Claude Opus 5 variants reflect uncertainty over exact effort settings or evaluation criteria. No major releases or benchmark shifts have occurred in the past week to alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$2,617Fecha de finalización
24 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Opus 5’s late-July 2026 release has driven the dominant 88% market-implied probability for its max-effort variant, as the model quickly captured top spots on Artificial Analysis Intelligence and Agentic indexes plus multiple Arena coding boards while delivering near-Fable 5 performance at half the price. Traders view the combination of 1M-token context, default thinking mode, and efficiency gains as decisive for any “best model” resolution on August 24. Qwen3.8-Max’s early-August launch and strong benchmark claims have secured a modest 9.5% share but trail on independent leaderboards, while lower-probability Claude Opus 5 variants reflect uncertainty over exact effort settings or evaluation criteria. No major releases or benchmark shifts have occurred in the past week to alter the current consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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