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icon for ¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de septiembre?
Tech·IA

¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de septiembre?

icon for ¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de septiembre?
Tech·IA

¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de septiembre?

oct 1

nov 1

dic 1

ene 1, 2027

oct 1

nov 1

dic 1

ene 1, 2027

Anthropic 98.7%

OpenAI <1%

Google <1%

Meta <1%

Polymarket

$3,705,243 Vol.

Anthropic 98.7%

OpenAI <1%

Google <1%

Meta <1%

Polymarket

$3,705,243 Vol.

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$827,168 Vol.

99%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$695,876 Vol.

1%

icon for Google

Google

$332,092 Vol.

1%

icon for Meta

Meta

$415,242 Vol.

<1%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$179,449 Vol.

<1%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$83,811 Vol.

<1%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$65,015 Vol.

<1%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$139,721 Vol.

<1%

icon for Xiaomi

Xiaomi

$34,848 Vol.

<1%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$348,820 Vol.

<1%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$182,177 Vol.

<1%

icon for Amazon

Amazon

$28,749 Vol.

<1%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$88,965 Vol.

<1%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$39,539 Vol.

<1%

icon for Thinky

Thinky

$15,148 Vol.

<1%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$34,406 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$36,341 Vol.

<1%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$19,597 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tencent

Tencent

$71,085 Vol.

<1%

icon for StepFun

StepFun

$22,501 Vol.

<1%

icon for Microsoft

Microsoft

$44,694 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, leads independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign with an 84.58 score, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra at roughly 83.8, driving the 98.7% market-implied odds for Anthropic holding the top AI model by month-end. Recent benchmark updates highlight its strengths in agentic tasks, coding, and knowledge work, reinforcing trader consensus on its current frontier position. With the resolution date only days away, limited room remains for a competitor to ship and validate a superior model. OpenAI or another lab could still narrow the gap through a rapid update or revised evaluation methodology, though such shifts would need swift, credible demonstration to alter the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$3,705,243
Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET

Fuente de resolución

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, leads independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign with an 84.58 score, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra at roughly 83.8, driving the 98.7% market-implied odds for Anthropic holding the top AI model by month-end. Recent benchmark updates highlight its strengths in agentic tasks, coding, and knowledge work, reinforcing trader consensus on its current frontier position. With the resolution date only days away, limited room remains for a competitor to ship and validate a superior model. OpenAI or another lab could still narrow the gap through a rapid update or revised evaluation methodology, though such shifts would need swift, credible demonstration to alter the outcome.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$3,705,243
Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET

Fuente de resolución

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de septiembre?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 21 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Anthropic" con 99%, seguido de "OpenAI" con 1%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 99¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 99% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de septiembre?" ha generado $3.7 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jul 20, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de septiembre?", explora los 21 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de septiembre?" es "Anthropic" con 99%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 99% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "OpenAI" con 1%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué empresa tiene el mejor modelo de IA a finales de septiembre?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.