Trader consensus reflects a 72.5% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, driven by the Trump administration's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework prioritizing innovation and minimal regulation over stringent safety mandates like mandatory frontier model testing or incident reporting. Federal efforts remain stalled, with two preemption attempts on state AI laws failing amid partisan divides in the 119th Congress; recent introductions such as the Protect American AI Act and niche measures like the GUARD Act for minors' AI protections have not advanced to passage. House appropriations bills fund AI security but sidestep broad safety rules, while pro-development legislation like the SPEED Act signals competing priorities, leaving slim odds for enactment by December 31, 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$98,173 Vol.
$98,173 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$98,173 Vol.
$98,173 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus reflects a 72.5% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, driven by the Trump administration's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework prioritizing innovation and minimal regulation over stringent safety mandates like mandatory frontier model testing or incident reporting. Federal efforts remain stalled, with two preemption attempts on state AI laws failing amid partisan divides in the 119th Congress; recent introductions such as the Protect American AI Act and niche measures like the GUARD Act for minors' AI protections have not advanced to passage. House appropriations bills fund AI security but sidestep broad safety rules, while pro-development legislation like the SPEED Act signals competing priorities, leaving slim odds for enactment by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volumen
$98,173Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus reflects a 72.5% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, driven by the Trump administration's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework prioritizing innovation and minimal regulation over stringent safety mandates like mandatory frontier model testing or incident reporting. Federal efforts remain stalled, with two preemption attempts on state AI laws failing amid partisan divides in the 119th Congress; recent introductions such as the Protect American AI Act and niche measures like the GUARD Act for minors' AI protections have not advanced to passage. House appropriations bills fund AI security but sidestep broad safety rules, while pro-development legislation like the SPEED Act signals competing priorities, leaving slim odds for enactment by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$98,173Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 72.5% implied probability against the U.S. enacting a comprehensive AI safety bill before 2027, driven by the Trump administration's March 2026 National AI Legislative Framework prioritizing innovation and minimal regulation over stringent safety mandates like mandatory frontier model testing or incident reporting. Federal efforts remain stalled, with two preemption attempts on state AI laws failing amid partisan divides in the 119th Congress; recent introductions such as the Protect American AI Act and niche measures like the GUARD Act for minors' AI protections have not advanced to passage. House appropriations bills fund AI security but sidestep broad safety rules, while pro-development legislation like the SPEED Act signals competing priorities, leaving slim odds for enactment by December 31, 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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