Traders see 8–13 days of Claude downtime in September as the most likely range because Anthropic’s infrastructure continues to struggle with surging demand for its latest large language models. Recent August incidents, including a multi-hour elevated-error event on August 24 affecting Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the API plus repeated login and degraded-performance issues earlier in the month, reflect a pattern of partial outages that has produced over 100 incidents in the past 90 days. Status-page data show component uptime near 99.4–99.7 percent, yet frequent short-to-medium disruptions remain common as scaling lags behind usage growth. This track record, combined with no announced major capacity upgrades before September, supports market-implied odds favoring roughly one outage day every two to three days.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado8-10 41%
11-13 31%
5-7 25%
14+ 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 sep 2026
<5
4%
5-7
25%
8-10
42%
11-13
31%
14+
7%
8-10 41%
11-13 31%
5-7 25%
14+ 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 sep 2026
<5
$159 Vol.
4%
5-7
$5 Vol.
25%
8-10
$105 Vol.
42%
11-13
$213 Vol.
31%
14+
$93 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Traders see 8–13 days of Claude downtime in September as the most likely range because Anthropic’s infrastructure continues to struggle with surging demand for its latest large language models. Recent August incidents, including a multi-hour elevated-error event on August 24 affecting Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the API plus repeated login and degraded-performance issues earlier in the month, reflect a pattern of partial outages that has produced over 100 incidents in the past 90 days. Status-page data show component uptime near 99.4–99.7 percent, yet frequent short-to-medium disruptions remain common as scaling lags behind usage growth. This track record, combined with no announced major capacity upgrades before September, supports market-implied odds favoring roughly one outage day every two to three days.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Mercado abierto: Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volumen
$576Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Traders see 8–13 days of Claude downtime in September as the most likely range because Anthropic’s infrastructure continues to struggle with surging demand for its latest large language models. Recent August incidents, including a multi-hour elevated-error event on August 24 affecting Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the API plus repeated login and degraded-performance issues earlier in the month, reflect a pattern of partial outages that has produced over 100 incidents in the past 90 days. Status-page data show component uptime near 99.4–99.7 percent, yet frequent short-to-medium disruptions remain common as scaling lags behind usage growth. This track record, combined with no announced major capacity upgrades before September, supports market-implied odds favoring roughly one outage day every two to three days.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volumen
$576Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see 8–13 days of Claude downtime in September as the most likely range because Anthropic’s infrastructure continues to struggle with surging demand for its latest large language models. Recent August incidents, including a multi-hour elevated-error event on August 24 affecting Opus 5, Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the API plus repeated login and degraded-performance issues earlier in the month, reflect a pattern of partial outages that has produced over 100 incidents in the past 90 days. Status-page data show component uptime near 99.4–99.7 percent, yet frequent short-to-medium disruptions remain common as scaling lags behind usage growth. This track record, combined with no announced major capacity upgrades before September, supports market-implied odds favoring roughly one outage day every two to three days.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes