Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a potential OpenAI IPO closing market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion at 42.4% implied probability, reflecting the firm's explosive growth trajectory underscored by its March 31, 2026, funding round that raised $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation—more than doubling prior marks and signaling robust revenue run-rate above $25 billion annualized. Supporting this are early groundwork for a Q4 2026 listing, including finance team hires and informal banker talks to preempt rivals like Anthropic. However, 21.5% odds on no IPO by December 31, 2027, capture recent headwinds: WSJ reports of Q1 revenue/user misses, CFO Sarah Friar's push to delay amid $600 billion compute commitments, and competitive pressures. Key catalysts include S-1 filings or regulatory updates ahead of year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado1.5T+ 39.6%
1T–1.25T 27%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027 24%
750B–1T 10%
$16,342 Vol.
$16,342 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500B
4%
500–750 mil millones
12%
750B–1T
25%
1T–1.25T
27%
1,25T–1,5T
11%
1.5T+
40%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027
24%
1.5T+ 39.6%
1T–1.25T 27%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027 24%
750B–1T 10%
$16,342 Vol.
$16,342 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<500B
$149 Vol.
4%
500–750 mil millones
$287 Vol.
12%
750B–1T
$421 Vol.
25%
1T–1.25T
$3,197 Vol.
27%
1,25T–1,5T
$478 Vol.
11%
1.5T+
$311 Vol.
40%
Sin salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027
$11,499 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a potential OpenAI IPO closing market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion at 42.4% implied probability, reflecting the firm's explosive growth trajectory underscored by its March 31, 2026, funding round that raised $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation—more than doubling prior marks and signaling robust revenue run-rate above $25 billion annualized. Supporting this are early groundwork for a Q4 2026 listing, including finance team hires and informal banker talks to preempt rivals like Anthropic. However, 21.5% odds on no IPO by December 31, 2027, capture recent headwinds: WSJ reports of Q1 revenue/user misses, CFO Sarah Friar's push to delay amid $600 billion compute commitments, and competitive pressures. Key catalysts include S-1 filings or regulatory updates ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volumen
$16,342Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a potential OpenAI IPO closing market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion at 42.4% implied probability, reflecting the firm's explosive growth trajectory underscored by its March 31, 2026, funding round that raised $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation—more than doubling prior marks and signaling robust revenue run-rate above $25 billion annualized. Supporting this are early groundwork for a Q4 2026 listing, including finance team hires and informal banker talks to preempt rivals like Anthropic. However, 21.5% odds on no IPO by December 31, 2027, capture recent headwinds: WSJ reports of Q1 revenue/user misses, CFO Sarah Friar's push to delay amid $600 billion compute commitments, and competitive pressures. Key catalysts include S-1 filings or regulatory updates ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$16,342Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a potential OpenAI IPO closing market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion at 42.4% implied probability, reflecting the firm's explosive growth trajectory underscored by its March 31, 2026, funding round that raised $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation—more than doubling prior marks and signaling robust revenue run-rate above $25 billion annualized. Supporting this are early groundwork for a Q4 2026 listing, including finance team hires and informal banker talks to preempt rivals like Anthropic. However, 21.5% odds on no IPO by December 31, 2027, capture recent headwinds: WSJ reports of Q1 revenue/user misses, CFO Sarah Friar's push to delay amid $600 billion compute commitments, and competitive pressures. Key catalysts include S-1 filings or regulatory updates ahead of year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes