Recent elevated error incidents across Claude models, including multiple resolved events in late July 2026, underscore Anthropic's recurring infrastructure strain amid rapid scaling and new releases like Opus 5 and Sonnet 5. Traders see this pattern—major disruptions in March and June plus frequent short outages—as evidence of persistent reliability challenges that could produce anywhere from minimal to double-digit downtime days in August, depending on traffic surges, model updates, and cloud fixes. The even 50% split across buckets reflects uncertainty over whether recent mitigations will stabilize service or if competitive pressures and usage growth will sustain volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado11-13 36%
8-10 34%
5-7 25%
14+ 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
<5
7%
5-7
25%
8-10
34%
11-13
36%
14+
25%
11-13 36%
8-10 34%
5-7 25%
14+ 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
<5
$0 Vol.
7%
5-7
$0 Vol.
25%
8-10
$0 Vol.
34%
11-13
$0 Vol.
36%
14+
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent elevated error incidents across Claude models, including multiple resolved events in late July 2026, underscore Anthropic's recurring infrastructure strain amid rapid scaling and new releases like Opus 5 and Sonnet 5. Traders see this pattern—major disruptions in March and June plus frequent short outages—as evidence of persistent reliability challenges that could produce anywhere from minimal to double-digit downtime days in August, depending on traffic surges, model updates, and cloud fixes. The even 50% split across buckets reflects uncertainty over whether recent mitigations will stabilize service or if competitive pressures and usage growth will sustain volatility.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Mercado abierto: Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent elevated error incidents across Claude models, including multiple resolved events in late July 2026, underscore Anthropic's recurring infrastructure strain amid rapid scaling and new releases like Opus 5 and Sonnet 5. Traders see this pattern—major disruptions in March and June plus frequent short outages—as evidence of persistent reliability challenges that could produce anywhere from minimal to double-digit downtime days in August, depending on traffic surges, model updates, and cloud fixes. The even 50% split across buckets reflects uncertainty over whether recent mitigations will stabilize service or if competitive pressures and usage growth will sustain volatility.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent elevated error incidents across Claude models, including multiple resolved events in late July 2026, underscore Anthropic's recurring infrastructure strain amid rapid scaling and new releases like Opus 5 and Sonnet 5. Traders see this pattern—major disruptions in March and June plus frequent short outages—as evidence of persistent reliability challenges that could produce anywhere from minimal to double-digit downtime days in August, depending on traffic surges, model updates, and cloud fixes. The even 50% split across buckets reflects uncertainty over whether recent mitigations will stabilize service or if competitive pressures and usage growth will sustain volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes