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icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

$46,190 Vol.

30 sep 2026
Polymarket

$46,190 Vol.

Polymarket

1510

$14,354 Vol.

35%

1520

$8,207 Vol.

18%

1530

$7,794 Vol.

10%

1540

$5,926 Vol.

10%

1550

$9,908 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants in May and June 2026, have driven top LMSYS/LMArena Elo scores into the low-to-mid 1520s by advancing agentic coding, reasoning, and multi-turn performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 series sit within 20–30 points, reflecting tight competition among frontier labs. Trader sentiment hinges on whether incremental improvements or a new model drop before September 30 can clear the implied threshold, as historical patterns show rapid Elo gains following major training runs or post-training optimizations, though gains often plateau between major releases.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$46,190
Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases from Anthropic, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 variants in May and June 2026, have driven top LMSYS/LMArena Elo scores into the low-to-mid 1520s by advancing agentic coding, reasoning, and multi-turn performance. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 series sit within 20–30 points, reflecting tight competition among frontier labs. Trader sentiment hinges on whether incremental improvements or a new model drop before September 30 can clear the implied threshold, as historical patterns show rapid Elo gains following major training runs or post-training optimizations, though gains often plateau between major releases.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$46,190
Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 5 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "1510" con 35%, seguido de "1520" con 18%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 35¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 35% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?" ha generado $46.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Apr 2, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?", explora los 5 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?" es "1510" con 35%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 35% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "1520" con 18%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.