**Current top models on the Arena text leaderboard sit at 1508 Elo for Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5, with several Claude Opus 4 variants and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series clustered within roughly 25 points.** Recent high-vote updates to specialized “high” and “thinking” configurations have driven incremental gains, while Meta’s Muse Spark and Google’s Gemini 3.7-flash-high variants keep pressure on the frontier. With only about five weeks until September 30, trader sentiment hinges on whether any lab ships a new base model or significant fine-tune capable of adding the 10–20+ Elo points needed to clear elevated thresholds. Historical release cadence shows frontier scores advance in small, rapid steps rather than large jumps, and the tight competitive landscape among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs means any credible announcement or benchmark leak in the next month could quickly shift implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$152,405 Vol.
29 sep 2026
1520
16%
1530
5%
1540
5%
1550
1%
$152,405 Vol.
1520
$28,353 Vol.
16%
1530
$20,883 Vol.
5%
1540
$10,551 Vol.
5%
1550
$11,875 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".**Current top models on the Arena text leaderboard sit at 1508 Elo for Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5, with several Claude Opus 4 variants and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series clustered within roughly 25 points.** Recent high-vote updates to specialized “high” and “thinking” configurations have driven incremental gains, while Meta’s Muse Spark and Google’s Gemini 3.7-flash-high variants keep pressure on the frontier. With only about five weeks until September 30, trader sentiment hinges on whether any lab ships a new base model or significant fine-tune capable of adding the 10–20+ Elo points needed to clear elevated thresholds. Historical release cadence shows frontier scores advance in small, rapid steps rather than large jumps, and the tight competitive landscape among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs means any credible announcement or benchmark leak in the next month could quickly shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volumen
$152,405Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".**Current top models on the Arena text leaderboard sit at 1508 Elo for Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5, with several Claude Opus 4 variants and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series clustered within roughly 25 points.** Recent high-vote updates to specialized “high” and “thinking” configurations have driven incremental gains, while Meta’s Muse Spark and Google’s Gemini 3.7-flash-high variants keep pressure on the frontier. With only about five weeks until September 30, trader sentiment hinges on whether any lab ships a new base model or significant fine-tune capable of adding the 10–20+ Elo points needed to clear elevated thresholds. Historical release cadence shows frontier scores advance in small, rapid steps rather than large jumps, and the tight competitive landscape among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs means any credible announcement or benchmark leak in the next month could quickly shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$152,405Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Current top models on the Arena text leaderboard sit at 1508 Elo for Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5, with several Claude Opus 4 variants and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series clustered within roughly 25 points.** Recent high-vote updates to specialized “high” and “thinking” configurations have driven incremental gains, while Meta’s Muse Spark and Google’s Gemini 3.7-flash-high variants keep pressure on the frontier. With only about five weeks until September 30, trader sentiment hinges on whether any lab ships a new base model or significant fine-tune capable of adding the 10–20+ Elo points needed to clear elevated thresholds. Historical release cadence shows frontier scores advance in small, rapid steps rather than large jumps, and the tight competitive landscape among Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs means any credible announcement or benchmark leak in the next month could quickly shift implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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