Claude Opus 5's July 24 release has driven trader consensus toward its high and max effort variants for the September 7 evaluation, as the model delivers step-change gains in deep reasoning, agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling over Opus 4.8 while matching Opus-tier pricing. It has since led or placed near the top of August 2026 leaderboards on intelligence indices, coding arenas, and agentic benchmarks from sources like Artificial Analysis and LMSYS, outperforming or closely trailing only the pricier Claude Fable 5. The high and max settings leverage its default thinking mode and full effort ladder for peak performance, with no major competing releases disrupting this positioning in the past month. Traders see limited near-term upside for older Opus 4.6 variants or other labs absent fresh announcements before the resolution date.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizadoclaude-opus-5-high 68%
claude-opus-5-max 25%
Otro 6.0%
claude-opus-4-6-high 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 sep 2026
claude-opus-5-high
68%
claude-opus-5-max
25%
Otro
6%
claude-opus-4-6-high
5%
claude-opus-5-high 68%
claude-opus-5-max 25%
Otro 6.0%
claude-opus-4-6-high 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
7 sep 2026
claude-opus-5-high
$20 Vol.
68%
claude-opus-5-max
$20 Vol.
25%
Otro
$10 Vol.
6%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$26 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5's July 24 release has driven trader consensus toward its high and max effort variants for the September 7 evaluation, as the model delivers step-change gains in deep reasoning, agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling over Opus 4.8 while matching Opus-tier pricing. It has since led or placed near the top of August 2026 leaderboards on intelligence indices, coding arenas, and agentic benchmarks from sources like Artificial Analysis and LMSYS, outperforming or closely trailing only the pricier Claude Fable 5. The high and max settings leverage its default thinking mode and full effort ladder for peak performance, with no major competing releases disrupting this positioning in the past month. Traders see limited near-term upside for older Opus 4.6 variants or other labs absent fresh announcements before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
Volumen
$76Fecha de finalización
7 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5's July 24 release has driven trader consensus toward its high and max effort variants for the September 7 evaluation, as the model delivers step-change gains in deep reasoning, agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling over Opus 4.8 while matching Opus-tier pricing. It has since led or placed near the top of August 2026 leaderboards on intelligence indices, coding arenas, and agentic benchmarks from sources like Artificial Analysis and LMSYS, outperforming or closely trailing only the pricier Claude Fable 5. The high and max settings leverage its default thinking mode and full effort ladder for peak performance, with no major competing releases disrupting this positioning in the past month. Traders see limited near-term upside for older Opus 4.6 variants or other labs absent fresh announcements before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$76Fecha de finalización
7 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Opus 5's July 24 release has driven trader consensus toward its high and max effort variants for the September 7 evaluation, as the model delivers step-change gains in deep reasoning, agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling over Opus 4.8 while matching Opus-tier pricing. It has since led or placed near the top of August 2026 leaderboards on intelligence indices, coding arenas, and agentic benchmarks from sources like Artificial Analysis and LMSYS, outperforming or closely trailing only the pricier Claude Fable 5. The high and max settings leverage its default thinking mode and full effort ladder for peak performance, with no major competing releases disrupting this positioning in the past month. Traders see limited near-term upside for older Opus 4.6 variants or other labs absent fresh announcements before the resolution date.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes