Recent model releases have fragmented trader consensus on the second-best AI lab, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Moonshot, DeepSeek, Alibaba, and others. Moonshot's July 16 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3—an open-weight model claiming strong gains on coding and agent benchmarks against some Claude and GPT variants—has underscored Chinese labs' rapid progress in scale and specialization, narrowing perceived gaps with U.S. leaders. Meanwhile, ongoing iterations from Anthropic's Claude Opus series, OpenAI's GPT-5.6, Google's Gemini updates, and Meta's Llama efforts highlight shifting strengths in reasoning, multimodality, and open ecosystems. With August resolution approaching, traders appear focused on near-term capability demonstrations and benchmark leadership rather than any single dominant trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 50%
OpenAI 49%
Google 48%
Meta 47%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
Anthropic
50%
OpenAI
49%
48%
Meta
47%
Alibaba
46%
Xiaomi
46%
Moonshot
43%
Baidu
43%
SpaceXAI
43%
Z.ai
43%
Nvidia
43%
Mistral
43%
Microsoft
43%
Amazon
42%
ByteDance
42%
MiniMax
42%
StepFun
42%
Thinky
41%
DeepSeek
41%
Tencent
41%
Meituan
40%
Anthropic 50%
OpenAI 49%
Google 48%
Meta 47%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
50%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
49%
$0 Vol.
48%
Meta
$0 Vol.
47%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
46%
Xiaomi
$38 Vol.
46%
Moonshot
$32 Vol.
43%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
43%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
43%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
43%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
43%
Mistral
$40 Vol.
43%
Microsoft
$33 Vol.
43%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
42%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
42%
MiniMax
$33 Vol.
42%
StepFun
$34 Vol.
42%
Thinky
$33 Vol.
41%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
41%
Tencent
$52 Vol.
41%
Meituan
$33 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have fragmented trader consensus on the second-best AI lab, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Moonshot, DeepSeek, Alibaba, and others. Moonshot's July 16 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3—an open-weight model claiming strong gains on coding and agent benchmarks against some Claude and GPT variants—has underscored Chinese labs' rapid progress in scale and specialization, narrowing perceived gaps with U.S. leaders. Meanwhile, ongoing iterations from Anthropic's Claude Opus series, OpenAI's GPT-5.6, Google's Gemini updates, and Meta's Llama efforts highlight shifting strengths in reasoning, multimodality, and open ecosystems. With August resolution approaching, traders appear focused on near-term capability demonstrations and benchmark leadership rather than any single dominant trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Jul 20, 2026, 8:50 PM ET
Volumen
$328Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:50 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have fragmented trader consensus on the second-best AI lab, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Moonshot, DeepSeek, Alibaba, and others. Moonshot's July 16 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3—an open-weight model claiming strong gains on coding and agent benchmarks against some Claude and GPT variants—has underscored Chinese labs' rapid progress in scale and specialization, narrowing perceived gaps with U.S. leaders. Meanwhile, ongoing iterations from Anthropic's Claude Opus series, OpenAI's GPT-5.6, Google's Gemini updates, and Meta's Llama efforts highlight shifting strengths in reasoning, multimodality, and open ecosystems. With August resolution approaching, traders appear focused on near-term capability demonstrations and benchmark leadership rather than any single dominant trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$328Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:50 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have fragmented trader consensus on the second-best AI lab, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Moonshot, DeepSeek, Alibaba, and others. Moonshot's July 16 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3—an open-weight model claiming strong gains on coding and agent benchmarks against some Claude and GPT variants—has underscored Chinese labs' rapid progress in scale and specialization, narrowing perceived gaps with U.S. leaders. Meanwhile, ongoing iterations from Anthropic's Claude Opus series, OpenAI's GPT-5.6, Google's Gemini updates, and Meta's Llama efforts highlight shifting strengths in reasoning, multimodality, and open ecosystems. With August resolution approaching, traders appear focused on near-term capability demonstrations and benchmark leadership rather than any single dominant trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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