OpenAI's commanding 82% implied probability reflects trader consensus around its sustained edge in large language model capabilities and agent frameworks, driven by recent iterative releases that have demonstrated stronger reasoning, tool use, and multi-step task execution compared with peers. This positioning stems from OpenAI's scale in compute, data, and developer ecosystem adoption, which continues to outpace rivals despite rapid industry progress. Lower odds for Anthropic at 9.5% and Google at 6.2% highlight their competitive but secondary standing in agent benchmarks, while xAI, Moonshot, and others trail further amid fewer verified agent-specific advancements. With resolution approaching at end of October, any major benchmark updates or capability demos in the next weeks could still shift sentiment in this closely watched AI sector.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOpenAI 86%
Anthropic 10%
Google 3.8%
SpaceXAI 2.7%
$39,553 Vol.
$39,553 Vol.
31 oct 2026
OpenAI
86%
Anthropic
10%
4%
SpaceXAI
3%
Moonshot
2%
MiniMax
1%
Amazon
1%
Z.ai
1%
Meituan
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meta
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 86%
Anthropic 10%
Google 3.8%
SpaceXAI 2.7%
$39,553 Vol.
$39,553 Vol.
31 oct 2026
OpenAI
$15,189 Vol.
86%
Anthropic
$5,638 Vol.
10%
$1,808 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$821 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$7,841 Vol.
2%
MiniMax
$737 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$716 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$671 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$634 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$670 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$714 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$473 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$616 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$578 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$617 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$760 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$669 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$400 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's commanding 82% implied probability reflects trader consensus around its sustained edge in large language model capabilities and agent frameworks, driven by recent iterative releases that have demonstrated stronger reasoning, tool use, and multi-step task execution compared with peers. This positioning stems from OpenAI's scale in compute, data, and developer ecosystem adoption, which continues to outpace rivals despite rapid industry progress. Lower odds for Anthropic at 9.5% and Google at 6.2% highlight their competitive but secondary standing in agent benchmarks, while xAI, Moonshot, and others trail further amid fewer verified agent-specific advancements. With resolution approaching at end of October, any major benchmark updates or capability demos in the next weeks could still shift sentiment in this closely watched AI sector.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volumen
$39,553Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI's commanding 82% implied probability reflects trader consensus around its sustained edge in large language model capabilities and agent frameworks, driven by recent iterative releases that have demonstrated stronger reasoning, tool use, and multi-step task execution compared with peers. This positioning stems from OpenAI's scale in compute, data, and developer ecosystem adoption, which continues to outpace rivals despite rapid industry progress. Lower odds for Anthropic at 9.5% and Google at 6.2% highlight their competitive but secondary standing in agent benchmarks, while xAI, Moonshot, and others trail further amid fewer verified agent-specific advancements. With resolution approaching at end of October, any major benchmark updates or capability demos in the next weeks could still shift sentiment in this closely watched AI sector.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$39,553Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's commanding 82% implied probability reflects trader consensus around its sustained edge in large language model capabilities and agent frameworks, driven by recent iterative releases that have demonstrated stronger reasoning, tool use, and multi-step task execution compared with peers. This positioning stems from OpenAI's scale in compute, data, and developer ecosystem adoption, which continues to outpace rivals despite rapid industry progress. Lower odds for Anthropic at 9.5% and Google at 6.2% highlight their competitive but secondary standing in agent benchmarks, while xAI, Moonshot, and others trail further amid fewer verified agent-specific advancements. With resolution approaching at end of October, any major benchmark updates or capability demos in the next weeks could still shift sentiment in this closely watched AI sector.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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