Traders assign Anthropic an 85.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its Claude series demonstrating superior benchmark results, safety alignment, and enterprise adoption relative to peers. This market-implied odds reflect consistent leadership in large language model capabilities amid a competitive landscape where OpenAI, Google, and others trail at 5.0% and 5.2%. Recent scaling improvements and partnerships have reinforced Anthropic’s positioning, though model release timelines can shift and new evaluations from third parties could introduce volatility. Upcoming developer conferences and capability updates through September represent key swing factors that may influence final trader sentiment before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 86%
Google 5.2%
OpenAI 5.0%
SpaceXAI 3.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
86%
5%
OpenAI
5%
SpaceXAI
3%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
Meituan
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Microsoft
1%
Thinky
1%
Mistral
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 5.2%
OpenAI 5.0%
SpaceXAI 3.4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
$4,876 Vol.
86%
$190 Vol.
5%
OpenAI
$207 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$315 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$264 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$211 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$219 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$202 Vol.
1%
Meta
$207 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$232 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$224 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$208 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$187 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$181 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$201 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$214 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$234 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$214 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$229 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$214 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$202 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Anthropic an 85.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its Claude series demonstrating superior benchmark results, safety alignment, and enterprise adoption relative to peers. This market-implied odds reflect consistent leadership in large language model capabilities amid a competitive landscape where OpenAI, Google, and others trail at 5.0% and 5.2%. Recent scaling improvements and partnerships have reinforced Anthropic’s positioning, though model release timelines can shift and new evaluations from third parties could introduce volatility. Upcoming developer conferences and capability updates through September represent key swing factors that may influence final trader sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$9,231Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Anthropic an 85.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its Claude series demonstrating superior benchmark results, safety alignment, and enterprise adoption relative to peers. This market-implied odds reflect consistent leadership in large language model capabilities amid a competitive landscape where OpenAI, Google, and others trail at 5.0% and 5.2%. Recent scaling improvements and partnerships have reinforced Anthropic’s positioning, though model release timelines can shift and new evaluations from third parties could introduce volatility. Upcoming developer conferences and capability updates through September represent key swing factors that may influence final trader sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$9,231Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Anthropic an 85.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its Claude series demonstrating superior benchmark results, safety alignment, and enterprise adoption relative to peers. This market-implied odds reflect consistent leadership in large language model capabilities amid a competitive landscape where OpenAI, Google, and others trail at 5.0% and 5.2%. Recent scaling improvements and partnerships have reinforced Anthropic’s positioning, though model release timelines can shift and new evaluations from third parties could introduce volatility. Upcoming developer conferences and capability updates through September represent key swing factors that may influence final trader sentiment before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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