US officials and industry leaders have repeatedly rejected any pause or mutual slowdown in frontier AI development this year, citing China’s rapid progress in closing the capability gap through models like Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4 despite US chip export controls. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly stated the US “can’t pause” because China won’t, while Beijing has dismissed slowdown calls as fearmongering and accused Washington of using safety talks to maintain dominance. Upcoming mid-September AI dialogues and the September 24 Trump-Xi summit focus instead on narrower issues like AI-directed cyberattacks and non-state actor risks rather than coordinated pacing of large language model releases or benchmarks. Mutual distrust over compliance and the strategic imperative to lead in artificial intelligence capabilities continue to outweigh cooperation, though a narrow deconfliction deal on specific safety protocols remains a remote possibility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
5% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
5% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement. A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement. A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify. A multilateral agreement will qualify, provided both the United States and China are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. Qualifying announcements must come from an authorized agency or representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, signed, ratified, later modified or withdrawn from, or ever implemented. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US officials and industry leaders have repeatedly rejected any pause or mutual slowdown in frontier AI development this year, citing China’s rapid progress in closing the capability gap through models like Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4 despite US chip export controls. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly stated the US “can’t pause” because China won’t, while Beijing has dismissed slowdown calls as fearmongering and accused Washington of using safety talks to maintain dominance. Upcoming mid-September AI dialogues and the September 24 Trump-Xi summit focus instead on narrower issues like AI-directed cyberattacks and non-state actor risks rather than coordinated pacing of large language model releases or benchmarks. Mutual distrust over compliance and the strategic imperative to lead in artificial intelligence capabilities continue to outweigh cooperation, though a narrow deconfliction deal on specific safety protocols remains a remote possibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement. A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement. A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify. A multilateral agreement will qualify, provided both the United States and China are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. Qualifying announcements must come from an authorized agency or representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, signed, ratified, later modified or withdrawn from, or ever implemented. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement. A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement. A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify. A multilateral agreement will qualify, provided both the United States and China are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. Qualifying announcements must come from an authorized agency or representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, signed, ratified, later modified or withdrawn from, or ever implemented. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Sep 14, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
Volumen
$7,426Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Sep 14, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement. A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement. A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify. A multilateral agreement will qualify, provided both the United States and China are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. Qualifying announcements must come from an authorized agency or representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, signed, ratified, later modified or withdrawn from, or ever implemented. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US officials and industry leaders have repeatedly rejected any pause or mutual slowdown in frontier AI development this year, citing China’s rapid progress in closing the capability gap through models like Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4 despite US chip export controls. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly stated the US “can’t pause” because China won’t, while Beijing has dismissed slowdown calls as fearmongering and accused Washington of using safety talks to maintain dominance. Upcoming mid-September AI dialogues and the September 24 Trump-Xi summit focus instead on narrower issues like AI-directed cyberattacks and non-state actor risks rather than coordinated pacing of large language model releases or benchmarks. Mutual distrust over compliance and the strategic imperative to lead in artificial intelligence capabilities continue to outweigh cooperation, though a narrow deconfliction deal on specific safety protocols remains a remote possibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of the United States and China announce an AI pacing agreement between them by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement. A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement. A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify. A multilateral agreement will qualify, provided both the United States and China are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. Qualifying announcements must come from an authorized agency or representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, signed, ratified, later modified or withdrawn from, or ever implemented. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An AI pacing agreement means an agreement under which both governments commit to at least one of the following for AI developers within their jurisdictions: conditioning the training, releasing, or deploying AI models on safety requirements; capping the computing power used to train AI models; limiting the rate or extent to which AI systems autonomously train or improve more capable AI systems (recursive self-improvement); or otherwise pausing or slowing the training or release of AI models.
Both governments must announce their acceptance of the agreement. A joint statement will qualify, as will separate official statements from each government that, taken together, confirm acceptance of the agreement. A statement by one government that the other does not confirm, and statements that reference ongoing negotiations, a prospective agreement, or an intention to cooperate without confirming acceptance of an agreement, will not qualify. A multilateral agreement will qualify, provided both the United States and China are parties to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. Qualifying announcements must come from an authorized agency or representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity.
If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the agreement is binding, signed, ratified, later modified or withdrawn from, or ever implemented. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,426Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Sep 14, 2026, 4:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US officials and industry leaders have repeatedly rejected any pause or mutual slowdown in frontier AI development this year, citing China’s rapid progress in closing the capability gap through models like Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4 despite US chip export controls. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly stated the US “can’t pause” because China won’t, while Beijing has dismissed slowdown calls as fearmongering and accused Washington of using safety talks to maintain dominance. Upcoming mid-September AI dialogues and the September 24 Trump-Xi summit focus instead on narrower issues like AI-directed cyberattacks and non-state actor risks rather than coordinated pacing of large language model releases or benchmarks. Mutual distrust over compliance and the strategic imperative to lead in artificial intelligence capabilities continue to outweigh cooperation, though a narrow deconfliction deal on specific safety protocols remains a remote possibility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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