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Elecciones·Primaria De Pensilvania

Ganador de la primaria demócrata de PA-10

icon for Ganador de la primaria demócrata de PA-10
Elecciones·Primaria De Pensilvania

Ganador de la primaria demócrata de PA-10

Janelle Stelson 97.3%

Michael Robinson 1.5%

Jason Cass 1.0%

Justin Douglas <1%

Polymarket

$21,931 Vol.

Janelle Stelson 97.3%

Michael Robinson 1.5%

Jason Cass 1.0%

Justin Douglas <1%

Polymarket

$21,931 Vol.

Janelle Stelson

$8,271 Vol.

97%

Michael Robinson

$1,448 Vol.

2%

Jason Cass

$9,264 Vol.

1%

Justin Douglas

$1,294 Vol.

1%

William Lillich

$1,654 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Janelle Stelson's overwhelming 97.4% implied probability in the PA-10 Democratic primary reflects her strong name recognition as the 2024 nominee who nearly unseated Rep. Scott Perry, combined with dominant fundraising—over $2.2 million raised in Q1 2026 alone—and a strategic refusal to debate challengers like Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas, signaling frontrunner confidence just days before the May 19 closed primary. Absent recent public polls, trader consensus draws from her past primary win in a crowded field and lack of momentum for underfunded rivals Michael Robinson, Jason Cass, or William Lillich. While late-breaking scandals, health issues, or a surprise progressive turnout surge for Douglas could shift odds, structural advantages and historical base rates for rematch challengers make upsets improbable.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$21,931
Fecha de finalización
19 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Janelle Stelson's overwhelming 97.4% implied probability in the PA-10 Democratic primary reflects her strong name recognition as the 2024 nominee who nearly unseated Rep. Scott Perry, combined with dominant fundraising—over $2.2 million raised in Q1 2026 alone—and a strategic refusal to debate challengers like Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas, signaling frontrunner confidence just days before the May 19 closed primary. Absent recent public polls, trader consensus draws from her past primary win in a crowded field and lack of momentum for underfunded rivals Michael Robinson, Jason Cass, or William Lillich. While late-breaking scandals, health issues, or a surprise progressive turnout surge for Douglas could shift odds, structural advantages and historical base rates for rematch challengers make upsets improbable.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$21,931
Fecha de finalización
19 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de la primaria demócrata de PA-10" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 5 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Janelle Stelson" con 97%, seguido de "Michael Robinson" con 2%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 97¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 97% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de la primaria demócrata de PA-10" ha generado $21.9K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 3, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de la primaria demócrata de PA-10", explora los 5 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de la primaria demócrata de PA-10" es "Janelle Stelson" con 97%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 97% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Michael Robinson" con 2%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de la primaria demócrata de PA-10" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.