President Trump's May 8 announcement of a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, effective May 9–11 to mark Russia's Victory Day and facilitate a 2,000-prisoner swap, has driven trader consensus to 100% "Yes," as both Moscow and Kyiv publicly affirmed the mutual halt in military engagement—meeting Polymarket criteria for a general pause ahead of the May 31 deadline. This rare de-escalation follows February's Geneva trilateral talks and April reports of nearing a broader deal, signaling diplomatic momentum amid stalled frontline advances. Though temporary, official commitments outweigh prior short truces like Easter's. Realistic disruptions—mutual violation claims, abrupt escalations, or resolution disputes—remain possible but deemed improbable by traders risking real money.