Recent model releases have compressed the race for third place on agent leaderboards, with Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 open-weight launch delivering strong multi-step reasoning and tool-use results that keep it at 40% implied probability alongside a broad field of labs priced near 50%. SpaceXAI’s Grok 4.6 fine-tuning for long-horizon agent tasks and OpenAI’s ongoing Codex-style agent work sustain their smaller shares, while Chinese labs such as Z.ai and DeepSeek compete on cost-efficient benchmarks. Traders view the outcome as highly sensitive to October leaderboard shifts in agentic metrics like SWE-Bench and BrowseComp, where small gains in context length or autonomous workflow performance can reorder the top tier before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMoonshot 40%
SpaceXAI 11.0%
OpenAI 8%
Google 6.5%
$23,989 Vol.
$23,989 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Moonshot
40%
SpaceXAI
11%
OpenAI
8%
6%
Z.ai
6%
Microsoft
5%
Alibaba
4%
Xiaomi
5%
Anthropic
4%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
Baidu
1%
MiniMax
1%
Nvidia
1%
Amazon
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot 40%
SpaceXAI 11.0%
OpenAI 8%
Google 6.5%
$23,989 Vol.
$23,989 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Moonshot
$10,352 Vol.
40%
SpaceXAI
$2,304 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$5,951 Vol.
8%
$295 Vol.
6%
Z.ai
$454 Vol.
6%
Microsoft
$257 Vol.
5%
Alibaba
$669 Vol.
4%
Xiaomi
$262 Vol.
5%
Anthropic
$1,067 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$342 Vol.
1%
Meta
$234 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$229 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$229 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$189 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$206 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$234 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$229 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$488 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have compressed the race for third place on agent leaderboards, with Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 open-weight launch delivering strong multi-step reasoning and tool-use results that keep it at 40% implied probability alongside a broad field of labs priced near 50%. SpaceXAI’s Grok 4.6 fine-tuning for long-horizon agent tasks and OpenAI’s ongoing Codex-style agent work sustain their smaller shares, while Chinese labs such as Z.ai and DeepSeek compete on cost-efficient benchmarks. Traders view the outcome as highly sensitive to October leaderboard shifts in agentic metrics like SWE-Bench and BrowseComp, where small gains in context length or autonomous workflow performance can reorder the top tier before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$23,989Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have compressed the race for third place on agent leaderboards, with Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 open-weight launch delivering strong multi-step reasoning and tool-use results that keep it at 40% implied probability alongside a broad field of labs priced near 50%. SpaceXAI’s Grok 4.6 fine-tuning for long-horizon agent tasks and OpenAI’s ongoing Codex-style agent work sustain their smaller shares, while Chinese labs such as Z.ai and DeepSeek compete on cost-efficient benchmarks. Traders view the outcome as highly sensitive to October leaderboard shifts in agentic metrics like SWE-Bench and BrowseComp, where small gains in context length or autonomous workflow performance can reorder the top tier before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$23,989Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have compressed the race for third place on agent leaderboards, with Moonshot’s July Kimi K3 open-weight launch delivering strong multi-step reasoning and tool-use results that keep it at 40% implied probability alongside a broad field of labs priced near 50%. SpaceXAI’s Grok 4.6 fine-tuning for long-horizon agent tasks and OpenAI’s ongoing Codex-style agent work sustain their smaller shares, while Chinese labs such as Z.ai and DeepSeek compete on cost-efficient benchmarks. Traders view the outcome as highly sensitive to October leaderboard shifts in agentic metrics like SWE-Bench and BrowseComp, where small gains in context length or autonomous workflow performance can reorder the top tier before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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