The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and stalled peace negotiations explain why traders assign an 85.5% probability to “No” on this market. As of mid-2026, bilateral contacts between Trump and Putin have included multiple phone calls and the 2025 Alaska summit, while Trump has met separately with Zelensky in Washington, Mar-a-Lago, and Davos. No trilateral format has occurred or been scheduled. Putin has conditioned any direct meeting with Zelensky on a finalized peace agreement, and recent U.S.-Russia discussions have produced only temporary ceasefire proposals without advancing a joint appearance. With roughly seven months remaining before 2027 and no breakthrough in multilateral talks, the absence of concrete plans for all three leaders to appear together continues to anchor the current trader consensus.