Bobby Pulido holds an 80.5% implied probability in the TX-15 House race against incumbent Monica De La Cruz at 18.5%, reflecting recent polling averages that show the Democratic challenger ahead by roughly 6 points among likely voters. The district, redrawn in 2025 and stretching across South Texas with an 81% Hispanic population, features new boundaries that encompass large areas unfamiliar with De La Cruz. Pulido, a Tejano singer entering politics for the first time, benefits from strong name recognition and outside spending, while multiple surveys from September 2026 place him in the lead or statistically tied. Forecasters rate the contest a toss-up or lean Democratic, testing whether Republican gains among Latino voters from prior cycles will hold ahead of early voting later this month.