Recent small-bank failures, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21 and four earlier in 2026, have elevated trader expectations for at least one additional resolution by year-end. Persistent commercial real estate losses, higher Texas ratios at smaller institutions, and reports that over 2,300 banks hold underwater loan portfolios continue to pressure weaker balance sheets despite large banks clearing the Fed’s June stress test with only a 1.6 percentage-point CET1 decline. With four months remaining, upcoming quarterly earnings and any further deterioration in regional credit metrics represent the key catalysts that could sustain the 67% market-implied probability for a failure.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
66% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
66% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Recent small-bank failures, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21 and four earlier in 2026, have elevated trader expectations for at least one additional resolution by year-end. Persistent commercial real estate losses, higher Texas ratios at smaller institutions, and reports that over 2,300 banks hold underwater loan portfolios continue to pressure weaker balance sheets despite large banks clearing the Fed’s June stress test with only a 1.6 percentage-point CET1 decline. With four months remaining, upcoming quarterly earnings and any further deterioration in regional credit metrics represent the key catalysts that could sustain the 67% market-implied probability for a failure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Mercado abierto: Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volumen
$84Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Recent small-bank failures, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21 and four earlier in 2026, have elevated trader expectations for at least one additional resolution by year-end. Persistent commercial real estate losses, higher Texas ratios at smaller institutions, and reports that over 2,300 banks hold underwater loan portfolios continue to pressure weaker balance sheets despite large banks clearing the Fed’s June stress test with only a 1.6 percentage-point CET1 decline. With four months remaining, upcoming quarterly earnings and any further deterioration in regional credit metrics represent the key catalysts that could sustain the 67% market-implied probability for a failure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volumen
$84Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent small-bank failures, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21 and four earlier in 2026, have elevated trader expectations for at least one additional resolution by year-end. Persistent commercial real estate losses, higher Texas ratios at smaller institutions, and reports that over 2,300 banks hold underwater loan portfolios continue to pressure weaker balance sheets despite large banks clearing the Fed’s June stress test with only a 1.6 percentage-point CET1 decline. With four months remaining, upcoming quarterly earnings and any further deterioration in regional credit metrics represent the key catalysts that could sustain the 67% market-implied probability for a failure.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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