**Recent US sanctions intensification under "Operation Economic Outcast," including expanded secondary measures targeting Iran's aviation, shipping, gold, and financial networks in August and September 2026, has sustained downward pressure on the rial.** Ongoing effects from earlier conflicts, naval blockade impacts on oil exports, and elevated inflation have limited foreign currency inflows and widened the gap between official and free-market rates. As of late September, free-market quotes have hovered in the 2.3–2.4 million range amid these constraints, with limited immediate relief signals. Trader consensus places the highest probability (79.5%) on settlement in the 2.2–2.5 million band at month-end, reflecting the cumulative impact of enforcement actions and structural supply constraints.