**Trader consensus for the USD/IRR rate at end-September 2026 centers on the 2.2 million+ range at 42 percent, reflecting expectations of continued rial depreciation amid intensified U.S. sanctions pressure and conflict-related disruptions.** As of late August, the parallel market rate has already reached record lows near 2.0–2.04 million rials per dollar, driven by tightened secondary sanctions targeting oil shipments, financial intermediaries, and third-country facilitators. Reduced Iranian crude exports, a naval blockade affecting the Strait of Hormuz, and surging inflation above 60 percent have compounded foreign-exchange shortages and eroded confidence. These factors sustain momentum toward further weakening through September, though any diplomatic de-escalation or sanctions relief could moderate the trajectory. The distribution across nearby bands indicates uncertainty around the pace of additional moves.