**Persistent inflation and the crawling exchange rate band continue to anchor trader expectations for further peso depreciation by year-end.** As of mid-August 2026, the official USD/ARS rate stands near 1,488, following gradual weakening from levels around 1,400 earlier in the year amid a managed regime that expands the fluctuation band roughly in line with lagged inflation (currently running at a 33.8% year-over-year rate in July). Monthly inflation near 2–3% implies ongoing band widening of similar magnitude, supporting cumulative depreciation of 7–10% or more through December and elevating the 1,600+ outcome to a 64.5% market-implied probability. Key supporting dynamics include the need to rebuild foreign reserves ahead of sizable external debt service, sustained fiscal restraint under the Milei administration, and limited access to international capital markets, all of which favor a controlled but continued weakening of the peso rather than abrupt stabilization. Upcoming inflation prints and central bank reserve data through the fall represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.